Will Ted Cruz say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Iran / Iranian” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 11, 2026 (25%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Mar 1, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Ted Cruz
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 29% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
11 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 11, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Ted Cruz say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Iran / Iranian” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 11, 2026 (25%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Ted Cruz says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Ted Cruz: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ted-cruz/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ted-cruz&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ted-cruz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP