Will Ted Cruz say “Supreme Court / SCOTUS”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Supreme Court / SCOTUS” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Mar 1, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Ted Cruz
Supreme Court / SCOTUS
- Probability
- 48% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Supreme Court / SCOTUS |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Supreme Court / SCOTUS | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Ted Cruz say “Supreme Court / SCOTUS”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Supreme Court / SCOTUS” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 25, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Ted Cruz says “Supreme Court / SCOTUS” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Ted Cruz: ‘Supreme Court / SCOTUS’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ted-cruz/words/scotus-or-supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ted-cruz&word=scotus%20%2F%20supreme%20court · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ted-cruz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP