Will Ted Cruz say “Israel / Israeli”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 2, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Mar 1, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

33%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Ted Cruz

Israel / Israeli

Probability
33% · n=3
Settled
1/3 (33%)
Last 2 transcripts
said in 1 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Ted Cruz say during RNC Midterm Convention? · settled no

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What will Ted Cruz say during Meet the Press? · not listed

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What will Ted Cruz say during his MS NOW interview? · not listed

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What will Ted Cruz say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled no

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What will Ted Cruz say during Face the Nation? · said 2 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 22 by speakers the rule does not count.

Ted CruzguestIn transcript

…ongoing nuclear weapons program. We took out the vast majority of that at the end of the 12-day war, where Israel had taken out –

Ted CruzguestIn transcript

…underground facilities, facilities like Fordo, which was built into the base of a mountain. The bunker buster bombs we used, Israel doesn't have those bombs.

Every match in the transcript

Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 10, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 11, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Mar 2, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes2

Questions

How often does Ted Cruz say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 2, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 1, 2026.
What is the probability Ted Cruz says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
33%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Ted Cruz: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ted-cruz/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ted-cruz&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ted-cruz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP