Ted Cruz: Speech, Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Ted Cruz say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Markets
12 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election / Midterm | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Talarico | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTCRUMENTION-26SEP10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP