Will Ted Cruz say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Election” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 11, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Mar 1, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Ted Cruz
Election
- Probability
- 28% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted; 12 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Ted Cruz say “Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Election” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 11, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Ted Cruz says “Election” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Ted Cruz: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ted-cruz/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ted-cruz&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ted-cruz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP