Will Ted Cruz say “Trump” 3+ times?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 2, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Mar 1, 2026 – Aug 30, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Ted Cruz
Trump (3+ times)
- Probability
- 28% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
8 counted; 35 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted; 11 by speakers the rule does not count.
President Trump's decision to launch this decisive action against Iran is the single most important decision of his presidency. I think he laid out powerfully…
…actively trying to murder the president of the United States, Donald J. Trump. I spent the entire day with President Trump on Friday, right before…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
Questions
- How often does Ted Cruz say “Trump (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Ted Cruz said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 2, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Ted Cruz says “Trump (3+ times)” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Ted Cruz: ‘Trump (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ted-cruz/words/trump-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=ted-cruz&word=trump%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=ted-cruz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP