Political debates, Jun 12, 2025
Kalshi What will candidates say during the 2nd NYC Democratic mayoral debate?
Polymarket NYC Mayoral: 2nd Democratic Primary Debate Mentions
Markets
37 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homeless | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rent | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Subway 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rikers | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| COVID | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary City | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Defund the Police | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eric Adams | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration and Customs Enforcement / ICE | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| School | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sexual Assault / Sexual Harassment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pizza | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Knicks | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AOC | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| California | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Los Angeles | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Pervert | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Black Lives Matter / BLM | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Congestion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Egg | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stop and Frisk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMDEBMENTION-25JUN12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP