Political debates, Mar 18, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Kentucky Senate Democratic debate?
Markets
18 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / DHS | Yes | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 73%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 73%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Gerrymander / Gerrymandering | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax Cut | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Horse | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing | No | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender / Gender-Affirming | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-CAND26MAR17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP