Political debates, Apr 1, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the South Carolina governor debate?
Markets
18 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Property Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 77%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 77%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire | No | 60%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Abortion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DMV | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rural | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMDEBMENTION-26APR01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP