Political debates, Oct 16, 2025
Kalshi What Will The Candidates Say During The NYC Mayoral Debate?
Polymarket What will be said at 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?
Markets
55 words · 31 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rikers | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rent | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rikers / Manhattan | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crime | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Subway | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Defund / Defunding | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York / New Yorker 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sexual / Harassment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Thousand / Million / Billion 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 20+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uganda / Venezuela | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ackman | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beret | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eric / Adams | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Funding | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gaza | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grocery | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ironic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kathy / Hochul | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lie | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Puppet | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary city / Hottest city | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordability / Affordable 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cat / PETA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Charlie / Kirk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant 8+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| LGBTQ / Transgender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oligarchy / Wall Street | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Public transport 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rent Control / Rent Controlled | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War Crime / War Criminal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Capitalism | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Czar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gristedes | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Horse | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Luigi / Mangione | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Italian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / DOGE | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-25OCT16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP