Political debates, Jun 4, 2025
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the NYC Democratic mayoral primary debate?
Polymarket NYC Mayoral: 1st Democratic Primary Debate Mentions
Markets
48 words · 29 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antisemite / Antisemitism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bail | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bribe | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| COVID | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| LaGuardia | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nursing home | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pizza | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subway 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Affordable | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Homeless | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Housing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Knicks | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Illness | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rikers | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Subway | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Violence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Columbus Day | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hamas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Italian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pervert | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sexual assault | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Black Lives Matter / BLM | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carbon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congestion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fight Like Hell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Indictment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plane Ticket | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stop and Frisk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tough on Crime | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Turkiye | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unhoused | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMDEBMENTION-25JUN04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP