Will Mike Waltz say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mike Waltz said “Hormuz” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 20, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; Feb 20, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Waltz
Hormuz
- Probability
- 45% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mike Waltz say “Hormuz”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mike Waltz said “Hormuz” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 20, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Waltz says “Hormuz” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Waltz: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-waltz/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-waltz&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-waltz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP