Will Mike Waltz say “Venezuela / Cuba”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Mike Waltz did not say “Venezuela / Cuba” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; Feb 20, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Waltz
Venezuela / Cuba
- Probability
- 45% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of a dozen -- 12 -- American hostages from Russia, from Bulgaria, from Venezuela, the Taliban, and Hamas. Excuse me, that's from Belarus, not Bulgaria.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Venezuela / Cuba |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Venezuela / Cuba | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Venezuela / Cuba | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Mike Waltz say “Venezuela / Cuba”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Mike Waltz did not say “Venezuela / Cuba” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Waltz says “Venezuela / Cuba” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Waltz: ‘Venezuela / Cuba’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-waltz/words/cuba-or-venezuela (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-waltz&word=cuba%20%2F%20venezuela · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-waltz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP