Will Mike Waltz say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Mike Waltz said “Israel / Israeli” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 20, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; Feb 20, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Waltz
Israel / Israeli
- Probability
- 66% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…king of -- of Jordan, and, of course, the prime minister of Israel just in the last four weeks. And next week, we'll have the…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Israel / Israeli |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mike Waltz say “Israel / Israeli”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Mike Waltz said “Israel / Israeli” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 20, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Waltz says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Waltz: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-waltz/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-waltz&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-waltz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP