Will Mike Waltz say “Democracy / Democratic”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Mike Waltz said “Democracy / Democratic” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; Feb 20, 2025), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Waltz
Democracy / Democratic
- Probability
- 45% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…power shall be vested in a president," singular. The whole will of democracy is imbued into the elected president. That president then appoints staff to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Democracy / Democratic |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Democracy / Democratic | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Democracy / Democratic | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Mike Waltz say “Democracy / Democratic”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Mike Waltz said “Democracy / Democratic” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 19, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Waltz says “Democracy / Democratic” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Waltz: ‘Democracy / Democratic’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-waltz/words/democracy-or-democratic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-waltz&word=democracy%20%2F%20democratic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-waltz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP