Meet the Press: Episode, Jul 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Mike Waltz say during Meet the Press?
Markets
13 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yemen / Houthi | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy / Democratic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America First | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Cuba | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| National Security | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMTPMENTION-26JUL26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP