Will Mike Waltz say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mike Waltz said “China” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 20, 2026.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; Feb 20, 2025), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mike Waltz
China
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Panama step away from the Belt and Road program, move away from China and back towards the United States, and even enter into talks and…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mike Waltz say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mike Waltz said “China” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Mar 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Mike Waltz says “China” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mike Waltz: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-waltz/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mike-waltz&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mike-waltz&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP