Mike Waltz: Hearing, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Mike Waltz say during the hearing on reforming the UN?
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Venezuela / Cuba | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Accountable / Accountability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy / Democratic | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26APR15B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP