Will Gavin Newsom say “Republican”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Republican” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 13, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

48%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=republican

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Gavin Newsom

Republican

Probability
48% · n=14
Settled
6/14 (43%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Gavin Newsom say during his CA election announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during the CAP IDEAS Conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his revised budget plan? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his Earth Day announcement? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his behavioral health announcement? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement on homelessness? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his MS NOW interview? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 27, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
May 19, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
May 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes
Apr 22, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes
Apr 2, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
Mar 11, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
Mar 3, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes
Feb 26, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
Feb 11, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes
Jan 23, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes
Jan 17, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes
Jan 6, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo
Dec 13, 2025RepublicanKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Gavin Newsom say “Republican”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Republican” at 6 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 13, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Republican” next time?
48%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP