What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Economy / Economic” next time?

45%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Gavin Newsom say “Economy / Economic”?

Name: Gavin Newsom: “Economy / Economic” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Economy / Economic” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (71%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

45%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 5/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 23:50 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Gavin Newsom

Economy / Economic

Probability: 45% · n=7
Settled: 5/7 (71%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Gavin Newsom say during his CA election announcement? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during the CAP IDEAS Conference? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his revised budget plan? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his Earth Day announcement? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his behavioral health announcement? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement on homelessness? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his MS NOW interview? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 2, 2026	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	No
Mar 25, 2026	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	No
Jan 23, 2026	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	Yes
Jan 17, 2026	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	Yes
Jan 9, 2026	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	Yes
Jan 6, 2026	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	Yes
Dec 4, 2025	Economy / Economic	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does Gavin Newsom say “Economy / Economic”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Economy / Economic” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (71%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026.
What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Economy / Economic” next time?: 45%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Economy / Economic’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/economic-or-economy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=economic%20%2F%20economy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP