Will Gavin Newsom say “Affordable / Affordability”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Affordable / Affordability” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 13, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Gavin Newsom
Affordable / Affordability
- Probability
- 50% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 17, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Gavin Newsom say “Affordable / Affordability”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Affordable / Affordability” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 13, 2025 (40%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Affordable / Affordability” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Affordable / Affordability’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/affordability-or-affordable (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=affordability%20%2F%20affordable · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP