# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2025-01-22 · 20 words · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview · as_of 2026-10-26T01:21:21Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2025-01-22 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-oval-office-interview (every P row; the listed term = w): This is a market on predicting the statements made by Trump during an Oval Office interview.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel	israel	1	12	11	0.92	YYYYYYYYYn	0.62	hist	yes
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	7	5	0.71	YYnYYYn	0.61	hist	yes
Putin	putin	1	6	5	0.83	YYYYnY	0.55	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	1	2	2	1	YY	0.54	hist	no
TikTok	tiktok	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.54	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	2	2	1	YY	0.52	hist	yes
Elon Musk	elon musk	1	11	6	0.55	nnYYnYYYnn	0.51	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	1	1	1	Y	0.48	hist	yes
Barron	barron	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.47	hist	no
Greenland	greenland	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	no
Reserve	reserve	1	2	0	0	nn	0.42	hist	no
AI/Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Melania	melania	1	6	1	0.17	nnYnnn	0.38	hist	yes
DOGE	doge	1	2	0	0	nn	0.37	hist	no
Crypto/Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	55	1	0.02	nnnnnnnYnn	0.15	hist	no
Capital Gains	capital gain	1	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Drone	drone	1	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Hegseth	hegseth	1	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Stargate	stargate	1	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Strategic Reserve	strategic reserve	1	0	0