# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · posts_window by 2026-04-05 (settled) · 25 words · P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-march-30-april-5 · as_of 2026-10-27T12:59:19Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-04-05 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 posts window transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-will-trump-post-this-week-march-30-april-5 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if @realDonaldTrump posts/truths the listed term between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-21T04:05:46Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	57	40	0.7	YYYYYYYYnY	1	0	0.66	hist	0	0	no	1
Terrorist	terrorist	13	7	0.54	YnYnnnnYYY	1	1	0.6	hist	0	0	yes	1
Congresswoman	congresswoman	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.53	hist	0	0	no	1
Peace Through Strength	peace through strength	12	4	0.33	nnYnnnnYYn	1	1	0.52	hist	0	0	no	1
Memphis	memphis	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	1	1	0.49	hist	0	0	no	1
Kuwait	kuwait	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
Gay	gay	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.47	hist	0	0	no	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	46	24	0.52	nYYYYnnnnY	1	1	0.46	hist	0	0	no	1
Palestine / Palestinian	palestine|palestinian	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	1	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Movie Star	movie star	4	2	0.5	YnnY	1	0	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Keir / Starmer	keir|starmer	3	1	0.33	nnY	1	1	0.43	hist	0	0	no	1
Pahlavi	pahlavi	0	0			1	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no	1
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	124	50	0.4	nnnnnnYnnn	1	1	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Boeing	boeing	7	2	0.29	YnnnnYn	1	0	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Ceasefire	ceasefire	33	7	0.21	nYYnnnYnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	yes	1
Bully of the Middle East	bully of the middle east	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Free Tina Peters	free tina peter	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no	1
Trump derangement / Trump deranged	trump deranged|trump derangement	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.34	hist	0	0	yes	1
Epic Fury	epic fury	27	11	0.41	nnYYYnnYnY	1	0	0.31	hist	0	0	no	1
Democrat Shutdown	democrat shutdown	11	5	0.45	YYYnnnnnYn	1	1	0.3	hist	0	0	yes	1
Panican	panican	5	0	0	nnnnn	1	0	0.28	hist	0	0	no	1
Easter Egg	easter egg	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	0	0	no	1
Happy Easter	happy easter	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe Biden	sleepy joe biden	0	0			1	1	0.42	prior	0	0	no	1
Statue	statue	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	0	0	no	1