Will “Reform” be said 3+ times at the next Prime Minister's Questions?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Reform” was said 3+ times at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2026 (40%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 PMQs we have transcripts for (Jun 24, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Prime Minister's Questions
Reform 3+ times
- Probability
- 41% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 PMQs
- said in 2 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the Prime Minister update the House on when Gloucester residents like Ian and Emma can expect to see his commitment to leasehold reform move forward?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…a decade of division when she drew a line between her and Reform for suggesting that her children were not British. That is wrong in…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…use it. Will the Prime Minister support the acceleration of change to market reform to ensure that we unleash the full potential of community energy?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…reviewing the funding formula as part of a wider programme of police reform. I would be happy to engage with her on that very issue…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…by political colleagues in the Conservative party—her party for many years—and in Reform as well. That is why one of the first things I did…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Reform 3+ times |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Reform 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Reform 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Reform 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Reform 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Reform 3+ times” said at the Prime Minister's Questions?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Reform” was said 3+ times at the Prime Minister's Questions on 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2026 (40%), most recently on Feb 25, 2026.
- What is the probability “Reform 3+ times” is said at the Prime Minister's Questions next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Prime Minister's Questions: ‘Reform 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/prime-ministers-questions/words/reform-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
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