Will Kevin Warsh say “Middle East”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Middle East” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 1, 2026.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Middle East
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment—both strong. Job gains have kept pace…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 2026 | Middle East |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Middle East”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Middle East” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Middle East” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Middle East’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/middle-east (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=middle%20east · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP