# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-06-14 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN14 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:20:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-14 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN14 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of CBS Sunday Morning , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	39	29	0.74	YYYYYYYnnY	3	3	0.61	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	22	16	0.73	YYYYYnYYnY	3	2	0.61	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	28	21	0.75	YnYYYYYYnY	3	3	0.6	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	2	2	1	YY	3	1	0.58	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	2	2	1	YY	3	1	0.58	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	23	15	0.65	YYYYnYYYnY	3	2	0.54	hist	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	1	4	2	0.5	YnnY	3	2	0.45	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	21	11	0.52	YnYYYYYYnn	3	2	0.4	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	21	8	0.38	YnnnnYnYnn	3	2	0.38	hist	yes
Hillbilly / Elegy	elegy|hillbilly	1	0	0			3	0	0.37	hist	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	8	2	0.25	nnnYnYnn	3	0	0.35	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	3	1	0.34	hist	no
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	2	0	0	nn	3	0	0.25	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	29	5	0.17	nnnnnnnYnY	3	2	0.21	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	7	1	0.14	nnnYnnn	3	1	0.21	hist	no
America First	america first	1	23	3	0.13	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.14	hist	no
Iran (5+ times)	iran#5	5	0	0			3	1	0.42	prior	no