# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-07-01 · 18 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUL01 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:20:18Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-07-01 · tn/th last 4 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-06-18 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUL01 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Remarks in Virginia Beach, Virginia , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Democrat	democrat	1	34	24	0.71	YYnYnnYnYY	4	3	0.58	no
Marine	marine	1	1	1	1	Y	4	1	0.49	yes
Space Force	space force	1	1	1	1	Y	4	0	0.49	no
American Dream	american dream	1	26	16	0.62	YYnnnYnnnn	4	0	0.46	yes
California	california	1	15	9	0.6	nnYYYnYYnn	4	1	0.46	no
Oil	oil	1	8	4	0.5	nnYYnYnY	4	1	0.46	no
Biden	biden	1	49	31	0.63	nnYnYnnnnn	4	3	0.45	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	29	13	0.45	nnnnYnnnYn	4	2	0.44	no
Drone	drone	1	2	1	0.5	nY	4	2	0.43	no
Fraud	fraud	1	31	15	0.48	nYnnnnnnnn	4	2	0.42	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	4	2	0.5	YYnn	4	1	0.41	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	2	1	0.5	Yn	4	2	0.41	no
Peace	peace	1	6	2	0.33	nnnnYY	4	2	0.37	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	11	4	0.36	YnnYnnYnnn	4	2	0.35	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	26	6	0.23	nnYYYnnnYn	4	1	0.23	no
NATO	nato	1	4	0	0	nnnn	4	0	0.22	no
America First	america first	1	29	4	0.14	nnnnnYnnnn	4	0	0.17	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	37	6	0.16	nYnnnnnYnn	4	2	0.14	no