# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-08-05 · 17 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26AUG05 · as_of 2026-10-25T12:28:20Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-05 · tn/th last 4 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-06-18 (under 2 interview transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26AUG05 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: The Ingraham Angle , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Trump	trump	4	4	1	YYYY	4	4	0.64	yes
Supreme Court	supreme court	2	2	1	YY	4	0	0.56	no
California	california	17	10	0.59	YYYnYYnnnY	4	1	0.5	no
Iran	iran	12	6	0.5	nYnYnnYnYY	4	2	0.5	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	28	18	0.64	YYnYnnnnYY	4	2	0.49	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	19	11	0.58	YnYYYnnYnn	4	1	0.46	yes
Biden	biden	51	33	0.65	YnYnnnnnYY	4	3	0.45	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	4	2	0.5	nnYY	4	4	0.45	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	16	7	0.44	nnYYnnYYYY	4	2	0.45	yes
Election	election	22	10	0.45	YnYnnnnnYY	4	0	0.39	no
Hormuz	hormuz	12	4	0.33	nYnYnnnnYY	4	1	0.39	no
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	0	0			4	0	0.35	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	13	5	0.38	nYnnYnnnnY	4	2	0.34	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	31	14	0.45	nnYnnnYnnY	4	2	0.32	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	28	6	0.21	YYYnnnYnnn	4	1	0.29	yes
Fraud	fraud	32	15	0.47	Ynnnnnnnnn	4	2	0.28	yes
SNAP / Food Stamp	food stamp|snap	4	0	0	nnnn	4	1	0.21	no