Will JD Vance say “Supreme Court”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Supreme Court” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 24, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jun 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Supreme Court
- Probability
- 46% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in the Trump administration is that we would like to have nine Supreme Court justices. That's the way that it's been for a long time,…
…with that assessment, and what is the Trump administration doing to punish and deter China, especially since the Supreme Court struck down the (inaudible) tariffs?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Lisa Cook, the Supreme Court said today that she's going to be allowed to stay at the Federal Reserve Board until oral arguments in January.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Supreme Court |  Kalshi | No |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Supreme Court | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Supreme Court”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Supreme Court” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 24, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jun 30, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Supreme Court” next time?
- 46%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Supreme Court’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=supreme%20court · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP