# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2025-11-14 · 26 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25NOV14 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:28:48Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-14 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25NOV14 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Hannity on November 13th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	7	6	0.86	YYYnYYY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Middle East	middle east	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.52	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	5	3	0.6	nYnYY	1	0	0.51	hist	yes
China	china	4	2	0.5	YYnn	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	5	2	0.4	YnnnY	1	0	0.41	hist	no
Fentanyl	fentanyl	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.4	hist	no
Election	election	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.38	hist	yes
Epstein	epstein	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.38	hist	no
Tax	tax	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.36	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	0	0			1	1	0.36	hist	yes
Investment	investment	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.35	hist	yes
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	0	0			1	0	0.35	hist	no
Drug	drug	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.3	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	3	0	0	nnn	1	1	0.27	hist	yes
Middle Class	middle class	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.27	hist	yes
2028	2028	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	yes
Cartel	cartel	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Erika	erika	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Filibuster	filibuster	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
ICE	ice	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Maduro	maduro	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
MAHA / Make America Healthy Again	maha|make america healthy again	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no
Midterm	midterm	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	yes
SNAP / Food Stamp	food stamp|snap	0	0			1	0	0.42	prior	no