Will JD Vance say “Maduro”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Maduro” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 14, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jan 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
44%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Maduro
- Probability
- 44% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Maduro”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Maduro” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 14, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jan 8, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Maduro” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Maduro’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/maduro (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=maduro · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP