Will JD Vance say “2028”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “2028” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 14, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 60¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
2028
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…then I know you don't want to talk about your own potential 2028 prospects, but Senator Ted Cruz and your good friend, Secretary Hegseth, apparently…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
I want Steven Kapusta to run for president in 2028. Go ahead.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2028 |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “2028”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “2028” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Nov 14, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “2028” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘2028’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/2028 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=2028 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP