# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2025-10-20 (settled) · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT20B · as_of 2026-10-24T15:49:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-20 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-25OCT20B ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after 12:01 AM ET October 13th and before Oct 20, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	12	6	0.5	nnYnnYYYYY	0.74	0	0	no	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	13	6	0.46	nnnnYnYYYY	0.74	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	12	7	0.58	nYnYYnYYYn	0.72	0	0	no	1
Football	football	3	3	1	YYY	0.71	0	0	no	1
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	19	10	0.53	YYnYnYnnnn	0.68	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	13	5	0.38	nnnYnnYYYn	0.65	0	0	yes	1
UFC	ufc	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.59	0	0	no	1
Amish	amish	2	1	0.5	nY	0.51	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.5	0	0	no	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.5	0	0	yes	1
Slopadopoulos	slopadopoulo	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	0.49	0	0	yes	1
Insurrection	insurrection	2	0	0	nn	0.49	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	25	12	0.48	YYnnnnYnnY	0.48	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	2	0	0	nn	0.47	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	18	8	0.44	nYnnnnnYnn	0.46	0	0	no	1
TikTok	tiktok	25	7	0.28	nnnnnnnYnn	0.45	0	0	no	1
Soros	soro	3	0	0	nnn	0.43	0	0	yes	1
Ghislaine / Maxwell	ghislaine|maxwell	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.42	0	0	no	1
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.39	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	20	3	0.15	YnnnnnYnnn	0.38	0	0	no	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	144	8	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	0.33	0	0	no	1