# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-09-05 · 20 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP05 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:37:08Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-09-05 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25SEP05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Oval Office announcement at 4:00 PM, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	48	39	0.81	YYYYYYnYYY	0.81	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	27	22	0.81	nYYYYYYnnY	0.7	hist	yes
China	china	32	27	0.84	YYYYYYnnYY	0.69	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	5	4	0.8	YYnYY	0.57	hist	yes
Putin	putin	30	22	0.73	nYnnYnYYYY	0.56	hist	yes
National Guard	national guard	4	3	0.75	nYYY	0.53	hist	yes
Kennedy	kennedy	3	3	1	YYY	0.49	hist	no
Chicago	chicago	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	no
Newsom	newsom	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	no
Border	border	25	16	0.64	nnYYnYnYYn	0.48	hist	yes
Tax	tax	7	5	0.71	nYYYYYn	0.47	hist	yes
Trump	trump	2	2	1	YY	0.46	hist	yes
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.37	hist	no
Shutdown	shutdown	0	0			0.36	hist	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.34	hist	no
CDC	cdc	0	0			0.34	hist	no
Federal Reserve / Fed	fed|federal reserve	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.33	hist	yes
Vaccine	vaccine	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.32	hist	yes
Immigration	immigration	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
School / University	school|university	0	0			0.37	prior	no