# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-12-05 · 19 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC05 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:25:07Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-05 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25DEC05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of National Christmas Tree Lighting, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Tariff	tariff	77	57	0.74	nYnnYYnYYY	0.74	hist	no
Biden	biden	118	92	0.78	YYYnYYYYYY	0.72	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	45	33	0.73	nYYYYYYYYY	0.64	hist	no
Peace	peace	23	16	0.7	nYYYnnYYYY	0.59	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	84	45	0.54	nnnnYYYYYY	0.58	hist	yes
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	25	15	0.6	nYYYYYYYYn	0.56	hist	no
Melania	melania	22	12	0.55	nYnYYnYYYY	0.53	hist	yes
Military	military	3	3	1	YYY	0.52	hist	yes
Border	border	72	42	0.58	nnnYnYYYYn	0.5	hist	yes
Veteran	veteran	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.48	hist	no
Eight War	eight war	9	5	0.56	YYYYYnnnn	0.48	hist	no
Investment	investment	44	21	0.48	YYYYnnnnYn	0.43	hist	no
Jesus	jesus	4	1	0.25	nnYn	0.41	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	27	10	0.37	nnnYnnnnnn	0.27	hist	no
Army	army	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Merry Christmas	merry christma	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
National Park	national park	0	0			0.41	prior	yes
Santa	santa	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Virginia	virginia	0	0			0.41	prior	no