Will Karoline Leavitt say “Republican”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Republican” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 10, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Republican
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…promised, and it's exactly what he is delivering with the help of Republicans in Congress. Democrats throw around the word affordability a lot, but when…
…the focus on the integrity of our elections, tonight. I think all Republicans and Democrats should recognize this should be a nonpartisan issue. If we…
…no mistake. This defunding of DHS should be a national scandal. If Republicans defunded DHS and we saw in another attempted assassination on a Democrat…
…our country. And on Independence Day last year, President Trump and Congressional Republicans delivered, passing the largest tax cut in history for working in middle…
…question. I have two for you real quick. There are reports that Republicans are weighing cuts to health care in order to make way for…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Republican |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Republican”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Republican” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Republican” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP