# Karoline Leavitt (karoline-leavitt) · speech 2026-09-10 · 17 words · K k:KXLEAVITTMENTION-26SEP10 · as_of 2026-10-24T06:14:46Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-10 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-03-10..2026-07-23 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXLEAVITTMENTION-26SEP10 ({word} = w of K rows): If Karoline Leavitt says {word} as part of RNC Midterm Convention , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	8	7	0.51	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	2	2	1	YY	8	5	0.5	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	1	1	1	Y	8	4	0.47	hist	no
Election / Midterm	election|midterm	1	1	1	1	Y	8	5	0.47	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	1	1	1	1	Y	8	2	0.47	hist	no
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	1	1	1	Y	8	7	0.47	hist	no
Border	border	1	2	1	0.5	nY	8	3	0.44	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	5	2	0.4	nnYnY	8	5	0.43	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	0	0			8	5	0.43	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	4	1	0.25	nnnY	8	3	0.38	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	8	0	0.33	hist	yes
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	1	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.3	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	8	1	0.26	hist	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	3	0	0	nnn	8	0	0.26	hist	no
Obama	obama	1	0	0			8	0	0.36	prior	no
Republican	republican	1	0	0			8	6	0.36	prior	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	0	0			8	8	0.36	prior	yes