Will Karoline Leavitt say “2028 / Campaign”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “2028 / Campaign” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 10, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
2028 / Campaign
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to President Trump, every child born between January 1st, 2025 and December 31st, 2028 will receive a $1,000 seed deposit from the United States Treasury.
…it continues to be now. With the World Cup, America 250, the 2028 Olympics, and a presidential election all ahead, the Democrat's obstruction is placing…
On the campaign trail in 2024, President Trump looked voters in the eye and promised them he would sign the largest tax cuts in the…
…Bush said in a message to the Iraqi people that, "The military campaign was directed against the lawless men who rule your country and not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…The Biden Department of Justice was fully on board with this lawfare campaign. And in fact, this story that was concocted by Congressman Raskin was…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “2028 / Campaign”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “2028 / Campaign” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “2028 / Campaign” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘2028 / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/2028-or-campaign (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP