# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · presser 2026-03-05 · 38 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR05 · P p:what-will-secretary-hegseth-or-brad-cooper-say-during-their-press-conference · as_of 2026-10-24T19:54:54Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-03-05 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Operation Epic Fury Press Conference on March 4th, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-secretary-hegseth-or-brad-cooper-say-during-their-press-conference (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Hegseth or Cooper say the listed term during this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Trump	trump	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.54	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.53	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	K	0	0			0.52	hist	yes
Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterated|obliteration	1	K	0	0			0.52	hist	no
Israel	israel	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.49	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	yes
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	K	0	0			0.4	hist	no
Drone	drone	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.34	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Civilian	civilian	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Constitution / Constitutional	constitution|constitutional	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Democrat	democrat	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Hezbollah	hezbollah	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Iraq	iraq	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	no
Oil	oil	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Submarine	submarine	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	K	0	0			0.45	prior	yes
America 15+ times	america#15	15	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Claude / Anthropic	anthropic|claude	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Death 3+ times	death#3	3	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Epic Fury 5+ times	epic fury#5	5	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
F-35 / F-22 / F-15	f 15|f 22|f 35	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
France	france	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Germany	germany	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Hormuz 3+ times	hormuz#3	3	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Hostage	hostage	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Intelligence	intelligence	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Iran 10+ times	iran#10	10	P	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
Kurd / Kurdish	kurd|kurdish	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Midnight Hammer 3+ times	midnight hammer#3	3	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Nuclear 5+ times	nuclear#5	5	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Peace	peace	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Power 5+ times	power#5	5	P	0	0			0.42	prior	yes
President / Trump 20+ times	president|trump#20	20	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Sacrifice	sacrifice	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no
Water Supply	water supply	1	P	0	0			0.42	prior	no