Will Donald Trump say “Soldier”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Soldier” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 16, 2025.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Soldier
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 2 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…You know that in the Russia Ukraine war 25 on average 25,000 soldiers are killed a month. Think of that. 25,000 young soldiers mostly soldiers…
…fighting a long time. You know they lose on average 25,000 mostly soldiers a month. You know that 25 I think of 25,000 young people…
…month they lost 32,000 people between the both of them. They're mostly soldiers, mostly young soldiers. Some people in a town that got hit or…
…quickly than people understand. They've they've had it 25000 young people, mostly soldiers a month, are dying 25000 a month. And I look at those…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2025 | Soldier |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Soldier”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Soldier” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jun 16, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Soldier” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Soldier’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/soldier (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=soldier · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP