# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-06-16 · 20 words · K k:KXDJTUKRG7-25JUN16 · as_of 2026-10-24T05:46:25Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-06-16 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDJTUKRG7-25JUN16 ({word} = w of K rows): If President Trump says {word} as part of his Bilateral Meeting with the President of Ukraine at the G7 Summit, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Putin	putin	22	17	0.77	YnYYYYYnnY	0.56	hist
Deal	deal	2	2	1	YY	0.5	hist
Mineral	mineral	6	3	0.5	YnnYYn	0.43	hist
Water	water	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.43	hist
Crimea	crimea	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.43	hist
Iran	iran	11	5	0.45	nnYYnYnnYn	0.41	hist
Rare Earth	rare earth	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist
Ceasefire	ceasefire	7	1	0.14	nnnnYnn	0.37	hist
Israel	israel	29	16	0.55	nnnnnnYnYn	0.36	hist
Security	security	2	0	0	nn	0.36	hist
Drone	drone	7	1	0.14	Ynnnnnn	0.31	hist
Body	body	0	0			0.42	prior
Donbas	donba	0	0			0.42	prior
Javelin	javelin	0	0			0.42	prior
Soldier	soldier	0	0			0.42	prior
Suit	suit	0	0			0.42	prior
Thank You	thank you	0	0			0.42	prior
Tough	tough	0	0			0.42	prior
Vatican	vatican	0	0			0.42	prior
White House	white house	0	0			0.42	prior