# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-07-07 · 17 words · K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL07 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:05:03Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-07-07 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL07 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of Debate Night in Michigan: Democratic U.S. Senate candidates' primary , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	2	2	1	YY	0.71	hist	yes
Trump (8+ times)	trump#8	8	2	2	1	YY	0.71	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	6	5	0.83	YYnYYY	0.7	hist	yes
Obama	obama	1	0	0			0.64	hist	yes
Data Center	data center	1	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.62	hist	yes
ICE	ice	1	4	3	0.75	YYYn	0.61	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	8	5	0.62	nYnYYYnY	0.61	hist	no
Iran	iran	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.59	hist	yes
Climate	climate	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.59	hist	no
Billionaire	billionaire	1	6	4	0.67	YYYnnY	0.57	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	0.57	hist	yes
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.55	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	15	6	0.4	YYnnYYnnYn	0.45	hist	yes
Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement	endorse|endorsed|endorsement	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	2	0	0	nn	0.38	hist	no
AIPAC	aipac	1	0	0			0.57	prior	yes
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	1	0	0			0.57	prior	no