Will Scott Bessent say “Deficit”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Deficit” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Deficit
- Probability
- 40% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…could we very quickly get $250 billion of that -- the budget deficit is approximately $1.8 trillion, so that would reduce the deficit substantially. If…
…going to be building on those gains in terms of the trade deficit dropping with China. Since last summer, there's been great stability in the…
…they could lose five million jobs. So remember that we are the deficit country. They sell almost five times more goods to us than we…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Deficit”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Deficit” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Deficit” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Deficit’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/deficit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=deficit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP