Will Scott Bessent say “Fed / Federal Reserve”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed / Federal Reserve” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 69% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Scott Bessent
Fed / Federal Reserve
- Probability
- 69% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Real GDP has risen 2.6 percent over the past four quarters. Atlanta Fed's GDP Now predicts 3.8 percent for this quarter, second quarter. The US…
…we have laid out in terms of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed chair, he's going to have the hearing on the 21st of this…
…manufacturing, we've seen some pretty grisly surveys this month from the Philly Fed, which saw the biggest drop since May of 2020, and the Dallas…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Fed / Federal Reserve | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Scott Bessent say “Fed / Federal Reserve”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Fed / Federal Reserve” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Fed / Federal Reserve” next time?
- 69%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Fed / Federal Reserve’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/fed-or-federal-reserve (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=fed%20%2F%20federal%20reserve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP