Will Donald Trump say “State” 5+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “State” 5+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 8, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
State 5+ times
- Probability
- 54% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…love you, Florida. And I'm thrilled to be back in my home state, Florida. I won. You know, we won all three times with the…
…Iowa. It's a incredible place. I'm thrilled to be back in this state that, you know, I shouldn't say I shouldn't break, should I? Yeah.…
…directed us at the Department of Justice to work with DHS, Treasury, State and the Department of War to build out a single plan to…
And I'm thrilled to be back in this great big beautiful state which I won all three times with more votes. I don't want to…
…job. They've sought out and found tremendous amounts of fraud in various states and it's nothing by comparison to what they're looking at. They have…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | State 5+ times |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 11, 2026 | State 5+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 8, 2026 | State 5+ times | Polymarket | No | 3 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “State 5+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “State” 5+ times at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 8, 2026 (67%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “State 5+ times” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘State 5+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/state-5plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=state%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP