Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2026
On its Apr 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Tesla said 14 of the 20 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 29 | 38 | ✓ | 97%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Optimus | Yes | 26 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 91%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 96%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Semi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dojo / Dojo3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Roadster | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 35%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Leader / Leadership | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok 5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Iran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “Software”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…way. We're investing in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, laying the groundwork for significantly increased manufacturing production.…
…by early next year. That will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI4. At that point, we're really just…
…With these approvals coming through, we expect the broader adoption of the software in the existing fleet and incremental demand for our vehicles. With all…
…Hardware 3. This will be a distilled version of the same V14 software that we released for Hardware 4. People should be able to start…
…scale when we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety. I think we're going to want to finish…
Where the listed words were said
…autonomy-ready, depending on what part of the world you're in. The supervised Full Self-Driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of Cybercab,…
…in the future. Of course, a very significant increase. Well, actually releasing Optimus, but increasing our internal production for testing, and then probably being able…
…but across all our factories. Our biggest limiter continues to be our battery pack capacity, and we are actively working on resolving that. Auto margins,…
…not realized any benefit from the recent Supreme Court ruling on IPR tariffs, as there is still a lot of uncertainty around the final outcome.…
Yeah. We're still working out the details of the Terafab deployment. In the near term, Tesla will be building the research fab on our Giga…
…just to get supervised self-driving approved in Europe. We don't control the regulators. We push as hard as we can, but it's ultimately up to…
…certain countries like France and Germany showing over 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries. In APAC, we witnessed growth in South Korea and Japan, again, in…
…starts a month, to make sure that a production process is sound. SpaceX is going to take care of the initial phase of the scaled…
…have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we're doing our…
…S curve, so you should expect that initial production of Cybercab and Semi will be very slow, but then ramping up, and going exponential towards…
…and we already have a lot of momentum for designing AI6, and we've begun to discuss ideas for Dojo 3. This is all very exciting.
…which is that it's going to be almost entirely autonomous. In fact, long term, the only manually driven car will be the new Tesla Roadster.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-04-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-04-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP