Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2026
On its Apr 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Tesla said 14 of the 20 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 29 | 38 | ✓ | 97%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Optimus | Yes | 26 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 91%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 96%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Semi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dojo / Dojo3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Roadster | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 35%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Leader / Leadership | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok 5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Iran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
9 matches for “Factory”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…In fact, we'll be ramping up production of all vehicles, in all factories, to the best of our ability through the balance of this year.…
…up to significant numbers next year, and we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start production around…
…keep growing volumes further, not just in Berlin, but across all our factories. Our biggest limiter continues to be our battery pack capacity, and we…
…billion of CapEx. Just to remind you, we are paying for six factories which were going to go into operation. Some have already started, some…
…to reach volume production. Initial skills will be, obviously, we're going to start with simple skills in the factory and then build up from there.
Where the listed words were said
…autonomy-ready, depending on what part of the world you're in. The supervised Full Self-Driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of Cybercab,…
…in the future. Of course, a very significant increase. Well, actually releasing Optimus, but increasing our internal production for testing, and then probably being able…
…a very big way. We're investing in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, laying the groundwork for significantly…
…not realized any benefit from the recent Supreme Court ruling on IPR tariffs, as there is still a lot of uncertainty around the final outcome.…
Yeah. We're still working out the details of the Terafab deployment. In the near term, Tesla will be building the research fab on our Giga…
…EU-wide approval later in Q2, and we're just gated by how the regulators go about it. Additionally, we've also received approvals in China. The broader…
…certain countries like France and Germany showing over 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries. In APAC, we witnessed growth in South Korea and Japan, again, in…
…starts a month, to make sure that a production process is sound. SpaceX is going to take care of the initial phase of the scaled…
…have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we're doing our…
…on development of our own AI5 chip and new products like Cybercab, Semi, Optimus, and Megapack, et cetera, continue to be at elevated levels, and…
…and we already have a lot of momentum for designing AI6, and we've begun to discuss ideas for Dojo 3. This is all very exciting.
…which is that it's going to be almost entirely autonomous. In fact, long term, the only manually driven car will be the new Tesla Roadster.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-04-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-04-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP