Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2026
On its Apr 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Tesla said 14 of the 20 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 29 | 38 | ✓ | 97%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Optimus | Yes | 26 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 91%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 96%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Semi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dojo / Dojo3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Roadster | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 35%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Leader / Leadership | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok 5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Iran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
17 matches for “Chip”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, laying the groundwork for significantly increased manufacturing production. We are also…
…technology until it's close to production. Congratulations again to the Tesla AI chip team for taping out AI5. That's going to be a great chip.…
We've also finalized plans for the research chip fab on the Giga Texas campus, and we'll start construction of that this year. In conclusion, Tesla…
…spend on AI-related initiatives, including expense on development of our own AI5 chip and new products like Cybercab, Semi, Optimus, and Megapack, et cetera, continue…
…maybe we have some ideas for improving the fundamental technology of how chips are made. There's some new physics we'd like to test out, but…
Where the listed words were said
…autonomy-ready, depending on what part of the world you're in. The supervised Full Self-Driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of Cybercab,…
…in the future. Of course, a very significant increase. Well, actually releasing Optimus, but increasing our internal production for testing, and then probably being able…
…but across all our factories. Our biggest limiter continues to be our battery pack capacity, and we are actively working on resolving that. Auto margins,…
…not realized any benefit from the recent Supreme Court ruling on IPR tariffs, as there is still a lot of uncertainty around the final outcome.…
Yeah. We're still working out the details of the Terafab deployment. In the near term, Tesla will be building the research fab on our Giga…
…EU-wide approval later in Q2, and we're just gated by how the regulators go about it. Additionally, we've also received approvals in China. The broader…
…certain countries like France and Germany showing over 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries. In APAC, we witnessed growth in South Korea and Japan, again, in…
Any kind of intra-company thing has to be approved by both the SpaceX and Tesla board of directors. It's got to go through a conflict…
…have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we're doing our…
…S curve, so you should expect that initial production of Cybercab and Semi will be very slow, but then ramping up, and going exponential towards…
…which is that it's going to be almost entirely autonomous. In fact, long term, the only manually driven car will be the new Tesla Roadster.
…solar? Residential roof deployments have stalled. Will Tesla move to regional solar and battery farms, perhaps coupled to Superchargers? Will we deploy solar through utilities?
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