Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2026
On its Apr 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), Tesla said 14 of the 20 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 20 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
20 words · 14 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 20- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSD / Full Self Driving | Yes | 29 | 38 | ✓ | 97%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Optimus | Yes | 26 | 29 | ✓ | 97%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Battery | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 95%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 7 | 7 | ✓ | 94%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 6 | 9 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 93%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Delivery | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 91%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 82%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| China | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 96%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Semi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 73%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 76%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Dojo / Dojo3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 51%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Roadster | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 38%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 35%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Cybertruck | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 71%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Leader / Leadership | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 55%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Grok 5 | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Trump | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
| Iran | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
6 matches for “AI4”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and will run on AI4. At that point, we're really just increasing the safety level of FSD…
…because it's looking like we'll be able to achieve unsupervised self-driving with AI4 that is far greater than human safety levels. Which means it's certainly…
…there's not a pressing issue to do so. At some point the AI4 hardware is going to get so old that it's like, okay, the…
…compute in trillions of operations per second and in memory bandwidth. That's AI4.1 or AI4+ probably goes into production middle of next year, I think.…
Where the listed words were said
…autonomy-ready, depending on what part of the world you're in. The supervised Full Self-Driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of Cybercab,…
…in the future. Of course, a very significant increase. Well, actually releasing Optimus, but increasing our internal production for testing, and then probably being able…
…a very big way. We're investing in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, laying the groundwork for significantly…
…one-time benefits from warranty write-downs around $230 million and some relief on tariffs. We have not realized any benefit from the recent Supreme Court ruling…
Yeah. We're still working out the details of the Terafab deployment. In the near term, Tesla will be building the research fab on our Giga…
…EU-wide approval later in Q2, and we're just gated by how the regulators go about it. Additionally, we've also received approvals in China. The broader…
…certain countries like France and Germany showing over 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries. In APAC, we witnessed growth in South Korea and Japan, again, in…
…starts a month, to make sure that a production process is sound. SpaceX is going to take care of the initial phase of the scaled…
…have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we're doing our…
…S curve, so you should expect that initial production of Cybercab and Semi will be very slow, but then ramping up, and going exponential towards…
…and we already have a lot of momentum for designing AI6, and we've begun to discuss ideas for Dojo 3. This is all very exciting.
…which is that it's going to be almost entirely autonomous. In fact, long term, the only manually driven car will be the new Tesla Roadster.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/tesla:2026-04-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=tesla:2026-04-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP