White House press briefing transcript, Jan 31, 2025

Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Jan. 31, 2025

At the White House press briefing on Jan 31, 2025, Karoline Leavitt said 5 of the 20 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 19 of 19 checked settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

Updated

Markets

20 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 19 of 19

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
President 50+ timesYes80115✓–new new word, no probability yet–
President 75+ timesYes80115✓–new new word, no probability yet–
China Yes711✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Good Afternoon Yes11✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Israel Yes11✓–new new word, no probability yet–
President 100+ timesNo80115✓–new new word, no probability yet–
ICE 10+ timesNo711✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Inflation 5+ timesNo44✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Border 5+ timesNo34✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
AI/Artificial Intelligence No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
America First No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Elon/Musk No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Golden Age No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Greenland No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
TikTok No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Tulsi/Gabbard No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Woke No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Cryptocurrency/Crypto/Bitcoin No00✓27%n=2 from settlement history–
Crypto/Bitcoin No–––25%n=2 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

167 passages · part 2 of 2

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara (presidency.ucsb.edu); White House transcript, public domain · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Questions and answers

QUESTIONreporter34:50

Thank you so much.

No, but the gentleman behind you. Yes, James, thank you.

QUESTIONreporter34:54

Thank you, Karoline. Two quick questions on foreign policy and then one very long and tedious and ponderous Rosen question thereafter. First on Iran, we've heard very little about the president's forthcoming Iran policy besides his determination to prevent that nation from achieving a nuclear weapons capability. Is it the president's objective, short of the use of US military force, to use the broad array of his powers to try to hasten the end of the Iranian regime?

I think the president has actually made his position on Iran very clear, and he made that clear when there were the negotiations about the ceasefire, which we know obviously is now in place. And the deadline on that ceasefire has continued. He said that Hamas and Iranian backed terrorists would have hell to pay if that cease fire didn't move forward.

And then quickly thereafter, it did. I also do have news on the hostage front, which I'm very surprised nobody asked about this because it is a big news story. And the White House applauds the release of eight additional hostages from Hamas captivity. Thanks to the ceasefire deal secured by President Trump, three Israeli and five Thai nationals are being reunited with their families and their loved ones after being held in unspeakable conditions for over 15 months.

And the president remains committed to the release of all remaining hostages and they should have never been taken by the brutal terrorist group Hamas in the first place. And I think President Trump's working meeting with the Israeli prime minister next week emphasizes his continued support for Israel and ensuring that brutal terrorists in that region have hell to pay. Sure.

QUESTIONreporter36:31

Thank you so much. Can I just finish the other two questions?

QUESTIONreporter36:34

I know you want the long ponderous Rosen, but first on the Grenell trip. As you know, under the previous administration, the US recognized the opposition candidate in last year's elections, Edmundo Gonzalez, now exiled as the legitimate president of Venezuela. Does the president's dispatching of Ambassador Grenell to negotiate directly with President Maduro today mean that the US now officially recognizes President Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela?

Absolutely not. As I made it very clear, former ambassador and now special envoy, Ric Grenell is going to Venezuela with two very clear directives, make sure that Tren de Aragua members, of which there are 400 currently in custody, are repatriated back to Venezuela and that all United States detainees return home.

Thank you very much, guys.

QUESTIONreporter37:26

Just on the president's use of language in this room yesterday, and without seeking to cast myself as some kind of moral exemplar because it's rather late in the day to try. Nonetheless, this was an event yesterday that began with a moment of silence for the victims of the air crash and the president's own invocation of, quote, a loving God. And then he uncorked that expletive to insult a former cabinet officer.

It was the same expletive that I saw him use in the East Room in 2020 when he famously held up the Trump Acquitted headline. My question is, if you could shed any light for us on how the president perceives his use of public profanity, which is a practice that certainly sets him apart from all of his predecessors.

Does he regard it as an effective communications device, part of his appeal, or is it something that he lapses into inadvertently perhaps in times of frustration and later regrets?

I think one of the things that the American people love most about this president is that he often says what they are thinking but sometimes lack the courage to say themselves. And I think yesterday at this podium, you heard President Trump express great frustration, perhaps even anger, with the previous administration's policies, many of which have led to the crises that our country is currently facing and that this president is focused on fixing.

Thank you, guys, very much. Have a great weekend. We'll see you next week.

QUESTIONreporter38:46

Do you travel next week, Karoline?

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